Bluefin-21 Analysis

One of our SciCast forecasters posted an excellent analysis of how he estimated the (remaining) chance of success for Bluefin-21 finding MH370 by the end of the question.

Forecast trend for Bluefin-21 success, on SciCast.
Forecast trend for Bluefin-21 success, on SciCast.

Jkominek was wondering why the probability kept jumping up, and created a Bayes Net to argue that there was no good estimation reason for it.  (There may be good market reasons -- cashing in to use your points elsewhere.)

Bayes net model created by jkominek to explore the Bluefin question.
Bayes net model created by jkominek to explore the Bluefin question.

 

The full blog post is here: http://blog.scicast.org/2014/06/11/scicast-bluefin-21-and-genie/