Author Archives: ctwardy

Incoherence & Mattson

People are often incoherent: their probabilities don't add to 100%. We get an 18% gain in accuracy if we coherentize their estimates. But we get a 30% gain in accuracy if we also assign more weight to coherent estimates.

What implications does this have for making subjective probability maps? Continue reading

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UAVs, MH370, Prediction Markets

In which I discuss two-and-a-half approaches to crowdsourcing Search & Rescue, and invite you to try one -- namely, mine: Continue reading

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NBC29 WVIR Charlottesville, VA News, Sports and Weather Short interview showcasing GIS for search and rescue.  The reporter only identifies the system as "ArcGIS" but I believe it is Don Ferguson's IGT4SAR.  

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One of the giants in Bayesian statistics passed away at his home earlier this week, coincidentally at the start of the O'Bayes 250 conference marking the 250th anniversary of the publication of Bayes' paper. Writeup in X'ian's 'Og.

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Berkshires 2006 Sweep Width Experiment

In the summer of 2006, Rick Toman and Dan O'Connor (NewSAR) organized a sweep width experiment and summit called "Detection in the Berkshires" at Mount Greylock in Massachusetts. The data from that experiment has been used in previous blog posts, but hasn't been published independently. Continue reading

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MapScore Updates

MapScore has been updated to include Batch Upload, and fix or improve a number of other features. Continue reading

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IGT4SAR post

Article by Don Ferguson on the WiSAR and GIS blog. Nice overview of search planning done in GIS. Stay tuned for some MapScore updates.

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Search Theory in C4ISR Journal

The C4ISR Journal had a recent search theory article quoting me along with Larry Stone. Continue reading

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Structured Methods for Intelligence Analysis

My colleagues just published a paper in Euro Journal on Decision Processes, for their special issue on risk management.

Karvetski, C.W, Olson, K.C., Gantz, D.T., Cross, G.A., "Structuring and analyzing competing hypotheses with Bayesian networks for intelligence analysis". Continue reading

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Thanks to Mike Goodrich for this RCMP Drone story.  In short, the RCMP spotted a stranded driver by using a drone-mounted infrared camera. We hope the FAA soon settles on good regulations for such drone use in the US.

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