2 February 2010, 19:28 UTCFundamental Law
An XKCD cartoon takes counterfactuals seriously.
14 January 2010, 2:39 UTCPhoto in The Fairest
Laura just noticed that our photo of Cook's Beach, Tasmania is now ranked #36 at TheFairest.info. Neat!
19 November 2009, 21:47 UTCProbability Words
"Very good chance" means anything from 50% to 90%. Here is a chart from the 1977 Handbook for Decision Analysis, that I have seen reproduced in other places.
6 November 2009, 15:12 UTCExplosives Divining Rod
Following the theme of the recent Field Evaluations Workshop, the NYT reports that Iraqi security checkpoints are relying on bogus detectors. The operators think they work, and won't believe test results. [NYT article]
6 November 2009, 10:58 UTCConsistency
Quote from a newsletter, regarding a TV show:
And at one point, the DA declares that one would hope for more consistency, that more pro-life people would oppose the death penalty and that more human rights advocates would find some rights for unborn children.
Indeed.
31 October 2009, 0:57 UTCPHIL 721 Advanced Seminar: Causation
Mason's philosophy department invited me to teach a seminar on causation this Spring. This is the text of the course flyer.
Update: Course Website.
22 October 2009, 3:29 UTCBNs for Intelligence Analysis
Recently I was asked to prepare a case study of the Apollo system for intelligence analysis, and the ongoing efforts to test its effectiveness. (Apollo is developed by IDI and HuMRRO; I'm just reviewing it.) Apollo uses Bayesian networks to overcome known biases in human reasoning that affect intelligence analysis, and other forms of argument and inference. The testing is going slowly, so I concentrated on the method and history, arguing that Apollo picks up where some promising work from around 1970 left off.
21 October 2009, 23:59 UTCBNs for Initiative Assessment
We presented
"Rapid Initiative Assessment for Counter-IED Investment" at the 7th Annual Bayesian Applications Workshop and the 77th MORS Symposium, both on June 18, 2009. One of the more interesting aspects for me was working on link strength graphs.
6 October 2009, 13:33 UTCNetbooks vs Thinkpad X40
I have had an MSI Wind for a year now, and like it well enough. But I have to replace it. I think a used Thinkpad X series is a better deal.
14 September 2009, 19:12 UTCpasswd:
> passwd Changing password for ctwardy. (current) UNIX password: Enter new UNIX password: Retype new UNIX password: Sorry, passwords do not match passwd: password updated successfully
13 August 2009, 0:37 UTCPay Too Much For Food & Power
6 November 2008, 16:51 UTCGelman on the Election
9 October 2008, 3:32 UTCRail vs. Bus
5 August 2008, 12:12 UTCBicycle Helmets & Pedestrian Casualties
9 July 2008, 14:58 UTCReston to GMU Bike Route -- Updated
1 July 2008, 21:45 UTCCorrelation & Causation
18 June 2008, 20:38 UTCThe Crowd Within
16 June 2008, 19:40 UTCAudiophiles, Significance Tests, Greenspun's Tenth Rule
10 June 2008, 13:27 UTCDemocracy
13 March 2008, 0:24 UTCKrugman on Interstellar Trade
6 March 2008, 1:33 UTCScience & Magic
29 November 2007, 1:58 UTCFixed Links
10 October 2007, 16:41 UTCAviation collision experiments
22 September 2007, 14:52 UTCPay for free software