9 July 2010, 19:23 UTCIncoherent Prediction Markets?
I have known about prediction markets for some time, and find botboth the theoretical arguments and the evidence convincing. But only today did I register for one and look around. I found something odd.
22 June 2010, 2:15 UTCWho Knows Best?
Ann Nicholson just pointed me to an excellent discussion of two approaches to behavioral economics: nudge vs. regulate.
22 June 2010, 1:13 UTCEmacs Calendar & pdfLaTeX
How to print emacs calendar landscape using pdfLaTeX.
13 April 2010, 1:12 UTCRiding the E+ Sun Ray EZ Recumbent
In which I ride a high-end 1000W E+ bike for ~60 miles.
6 April 2010, 18:46 UTCPerformance-Weighted Opinions
A recent letter ("Opinion") in Nature highlights Cooke's Method for eliciting and aggregating expert opinion based on actual performance estimating related credible intervals. The method should be able to improve on simple averaging.
27 March 2010, 1:00 UTCYudkowsky on Priors
Eliezer Yudkowsky writes many things of interest. A student recently pointed me to his Excruciatingly Gentle Introduction to Bayes' Theorem. Gentle perhaps, but long. Take small bites.
2 February 2010, 19:28 UTCFundamental Law
An XKCD cartoon takes counterfactuals seriously.
14 January 2010, 2:39 UTCPhoto in The Fairest
Laura just noticed that our photo of Cook's Beach, Tasmania is now ranked #36 at TheFairest.info. Neat!
19 November 2009, 21:47 UTCProbability Words
"Very good chance" means anything from 50% to 90%. Here is a chart from the 1977 Handbook for Decision Analysis, that I have seen reproduced in other places.
6 November 2009, 15:12 UTCExplosives Divining Rod
Following the theme of the recent Field Evaluations Workshop, the NYT reports that Iraqi security checkpoints are relying on bogus detectors. The operators think they work, and won't believe test results. [NYT article]
6 November 2009, 10:58 UTCConsistency
31 October 2009, 0:57 UTCPHIL 721 Advanced Seminar: Causation
22 October 2009, 3:29 UTCBNs for Intelligence Analysis
21 October 2009, 23:59 UTCBNs for Initiative Assessment
6 October 2009, 13:33 UTCNetbooks vs Thinkpad X40
14 September 2009, 19:12 UTCpasswd:
13 August 2009, 0:37 UTCPay Too Much For Food & Power
6 November 2008, 16:51 UTCGelman on the Election
9 October 2008, 3:32 UTCRail vs. Bus
5 August 2008, 12:12 UTCBicycle Helmets & Pedestrian Casualties
9 July 2008, 14:58 UTCReston to GMU Bike Route -- Updated
1 July 2008, 21:45 UTCCorrelation & Causation
18 June 2008, 20:38 UTCThe Crowd Within
16 June 2008, 19:40 UTCAudiophiles, Significance Tests, Greenspun's Tenth Rule
10 June 2008, 13:27 UTCDemocracy
13 March 2008, 0:24 UTCKrugman on Interstellar Trade
6 March 2008, 1:33 UTCScience & Magic
29 November 2007, 1:58 UTCFixed Links
10 October 2007, 16:41 UTCAviation collision experiments
22 September 2007, 14:52 UTCPay for free software