Prior Analytics
9 July 2010, 19:23 UTCIncoherent Prediction Markets?
I have known about prediction markets for some time, and find botboth the theoretical arguments and the evidence convincing. But only today did I register for one and look around. I found something odd.
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22 June 2010, 2:15 UTCWho Knows Best?
Ann Nicholson just pointed me to an excellent discussion of two approaches to behavioral economics: nudge vs. regulate.
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22 June 2010, 1:13 UTCEmacs Calendar & pdfLaTeX
How to print emacs calendar landscape using pdfLaTeX.
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13 April 2010, 1:12 UTCRiding the E+ Sun Ray EZ Recumbent
6 April 2010, 18:46 UTCPerformance-Weighted Opinions
27 March 2010, 1:00 UTCYudkowsky on Priors
2 February 2010, 19:28 UTCFundamental Law
14 January 2010, 2:39 UTCPhoto in The Fairest
19 November 2009, 21:47 UTCProbability Words
6 November 2009, 15:12 UTCExplosives Divining Rod
6 November 2009, 10:58 UTCConsistency
31 October 2009, 0:57 UTCPHIL 721 Advanced Seminar: Causation
22 October 2009, 3:29 UTCBNs for Intelligence Analysis
21 October 2009, 23:59 UTCBNs for Initiative Assessment
6 October 2009, 13:33 UTCNetbooks vs Thinkpad X40
14 September 2009, 19:12 UTCpasswd:
13 August 2009, 0:37 UTCPay Too Much For Food & Power
6 November 2008, 16:51 UTCGelman on the Election
9 October 2008, 3:32 UTCRail vs. Bus
5 August 2008, 12:12 UTCBicycle Helmets & Pedestrian Casualties
9 July 2008, 14:58 UTCReston to GMU Bike Route -- Updated
1 July 2008, 21:45 UTCCorrelation & Causation
18 June 2008, 20:38 UTCThe Crowd Within
16 June 2008, 19:40 UTCAudiophiles, Significance Tests, Greenspun's Tenth Rule
10 June 2008, 13:27 UTCDemocracy
13 March 2008, 0:24 UTCKrugman on Interstellar Trade
6 March 2008, 1:33 UTCScience & Magic
29 November 2007, 1:58 UTCFixed Links
10 October 2007, 16:41 UTCAviation collision experiments
22 September 2007, 14:52 UTCPay for free software
Gelman has a nice quick analysis of election results, suggesting that state-by-state there was overall a uniform blue shift of about 4% (+- 3%) compared to 2004. However, since 2000, the youth vote has become increasingly blue shifted:
And link Nate Silver did well , predicting 52.3% for Obama and 46.2% for McCain (actual appears to be 52.4% and 46.3%), and correctly predicting all but 1 or 2 states. And although correctly predicted, Alaska was way outside the margins of error (+25% vs +12%), though many votes are yet uncounted.
Many comments at 538 echo this response to McCain's concession speech:
The McCain that gave this speech tonight would have done well running for President.
Thanks to CrookedTimber for pointing me to Gelman's analysis.