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The Killer Germs book is 5+ years old. In some cases, this makes a difference, particularly regarding Iraq (pp. 216-182). I find it quite jarring.

But it's interesting to revisit common knowledge/opinion at the time. And although the copyright is 2003, the time of writing was no later than 2002, as betrayed by the ISBN number and other clues. (Publishers often foredate the book, because newer dates look better. Authors, seeking priority, dislike this practice.)

At least, these were common views within the U.S. circa 2002, and not just among "hawks" -- note that the authors criticize U.S. offensive biowarfare programs. I was living in Australia from 2000 to 2005 -- through 9/11 and the Iraq invasion -- so I was getting mostly non-U.S. news sources. My impression is that non-U.S. media did better, being generally more critical of U.S. motives and claims (to put things lightly).

But even so, a prominent Australian WMD inspector expected to find WMD. During his inspections he discovered that Iraqi scientists had themselves been lying to Saddam, to convince him they had (or still had) bioweapons that had since degenerated or been destroyed following the first Gulf War.

I have even heard a story that Iraqi generals going to briefing before the 2nd U.S. invasion were themselves expecting to hear what bioweapons they had, and how to use them. Only then did they discover that there were none. To stay in power in the region, Saddam had to keep allies and opponents uncertain about his actual capabilities. Some commentators have even argued that it was intolerance of that kind of game which helped feed the U.S. decision to go to war.

But that opinion, like this blog entry, is subject to hindsight bias and rationalization.





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