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# Tag Archives: Probability Maps

## Incoherence & Mattson

People are often incoherent: their probabilities don't add to 100%. We get an 18% gain in accuracy if we coherentize their estimates. But we get a 30% gain in accuracy if we also assign more weight to coherent estimates.

What implications does this have for making subjective probability maps? Continue reading

Posted in Search Theory
Tagged consensus, Mattson, O'Connor, Probability Maps, proportional, psychology
5 Comments

## UAVs, MH370, Prediction Markets

In which I discuss two-and-a-half approaches to crowdsourcing Search & Rescue, and invite you to try one -- namely, mine: http://bit.ly/1eBBMkq Continue reading

Posted in Search Theory
Tagged Bayesian, crowdsourcing, iRevolution, MH 370, MH370, Prediction Market, Probability Maps, SciCast, UAV, UAVs
2 Comments

## MapScore Updates

MapScore has been updated to include Batch Upload, and fix or improve a number of other features. Continue reading

Links to Paul Doherty's new research page. Elena Sava has been testing a simple watershed model that Paul helped develop: it scores about 0.55. Considering the simplicity, that's pretty good. Continue reading

## MapScore: A Portal for Scoring Probability Maps

The SARBayes MapScore server has been running for a month now at http://mapscore.sarbayes.org. It's a portal for scoring probability maps, so researchers like us can measure how well we are doing, and see which approaches work best for which situations. … Continue reading

## Landmine probability maps

The following paper creates landmine probability maps almost precisely in the way that I have wanted to create lost person behavior probability maps. (I'll add some more notes on it later.)

## Instructions for “Probability Mapper”

NOTE: This is OLD software. It was only a proof-of-concept. It was NEVER operational. Needless to say, it is completely without warranty, etc.

Posted in Probability Mapper, Search Theory
Tagged Bayesian, Data Analysis, Golding, Lost Person Behavior, PM, Probability Maps, Search Theory
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