Tag Archives: Probability Maps

Incoherence & Mattson

People are often incoherent: their probabilities don't add to 100%. We get an 18% gain in accuracy if we coherentize their estimates. But we get a 30% gain in accuracy if we also assign more weight to coherent estimates.

What implications does this have for making subjective probability maps? Continue reading

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UAVs, MH370, Prediction Markets

In which I discuss two-and-a-half approaches to crowdsourcing Search & Rescue, and invite you to try one -- namely, mine: http://bit.ly/1eBBMkq Continue reading

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MapScore Updates

MapScore has been updated to include Batch Upload, and fix or improve a number of other features. Continue reading

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Links to Paul Doherty's new research page. Elena Sava has been testing a simple watershed model that Paul helped develop: it scores about 0.55. Considering the simplicity, that's pretty good. Continue reading

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MapScore: A Portal for Scoring Probability Maps

The SARBayes MapScore server has been running for a month now at http://mapscore.sarbayes.org.  It's a portal for scoring probability maps, so researchers like us can measure how well we are doing, and see which approaches work best for which situations.  … Continue reading

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Landmine probability maps

The following paper creates landmine probability maps almost precisely in the way that I have wanted to create lost person behavior probability maps. (I'll add some more notes on it later.)

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Instructions for “Probability Mapper”

NOTE: This is OLD software. It was only a proof-of-concept. It was NEVER operational.  Needless to say, it is completely without warranty, etc. 

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